CRWD Q2 2026: Guides 40% Net New ARR, Eyes $1B ARR in Q3
- Strong ARR growth momentum: Management's guidance of at least 40% net new ARR growth in the back half and more than 22% ending ARR growth for FY 2026 indicates accelerating top‐line momentum that builds on record ARR performance.
- Robust customer retention: With historical module renewal rates exceeding 95%, the company’s high retention and platform stickiness support sustained recurring revenue and long‑term growth.
- Innovative product expansion: Strategic investments in disruptive technologies—including the acquisition of ONEM and continued advancement of Charlotte AI—position CrowdStrike to strengthen its next‑generation SIEM and overall cybersecurity platform, creating a competitive advantage.
- Sustainability of Accelerated Growth: The guidance assumes a 40% year-over-year net new ARR increase in the back half, yet core modules have shown deceleration from 18% to 11% growth, raising concerns about whether this acceleration is sustainable.
- Integration and Execution Risks: The acquisition of ONEM and aggressive expansion into next-generation products (e.g., identity protection and PAM) introduce risks. If integration or execution falls short, it could impact the overall performance of the platform.
- Dependence on Partner Programs and Public Sector Opportunities: The revenue guidance factors in partner rebate programs and anticipated public sector deals—which historically have taken time to materialize. Any shortfall in these initiatives could put additional pressure on future revenue performance.
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Total Revenue | Q3 2026 | $1,144.7M to $1,151.6M | $1,208,000,000 to $1,218,000,000 | raised |
Non-GAAP Income from Operations | Q3 2026 | $226.9M to $233.1M | $256,000,000 to $262,000,000 | raised |
Non-GAAP Net Income | Q3 2026 | $209.1M to $213.8M | $238,100,000 to $242,800,000 | raised |
Diluted Non-GAAP Net Income Per Share | Q3 2026 | $0.82 to $0.84 | $0.93 to $0.95 | raised |
Sequential Net New ARR Growth Rate | Q3 2026 | At least double the growth rate | High single-digit sequential net new ARR growth from Q2 | lowered |
Total Revenue | FY 2026 | $4,743.5M to $4,805.5M | $4,749,500,000 to $4,805,500,000 | raised |
Non-GAAP Income from Operations | FY 2026 | $970.8M to $1,010.8M | $1,000,100,000 to $1,040,100,000 | raised |
Non-GAAP Net Income | FY 2026 | $878.7M to $909.7M | $922,400,000 to $954,000,000 | raised |
Non-GAAP Net Income Per Share | FY 2026 | $3.44 to $3.56 | $3.60 to $3.72 | raised |
Free Cash Flow Margin | Q4 2026 | no prior guidance | 27% | no prior guidance |
Free Cash Flow Margin | FY 2027 | no prior guidance | More than 30% | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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ARR Growth and Sustainability | Discussed across Q1 2026 (net new ARR of $194M and ending ARR of $4.44B ), Q4 2025 (ending ARR of $4.24B at 23% YoY and strong net new ARR ), and Q3 2025 (ARR over $4B with challenges from the July 19 incident but set on path to $10B ). | Q2 2026 reported an ending ARR of $4.66B with record net new ARR of $221M and strong sustainability drivers such as AI demand and the Falcon Flex model. | Consistently positive with robust growth drivers; sentiment remains highly optimistic and forward‐looking with improved sustainability. |
Customer Retention and Recurring Revenue | Emphasized in Q1 2026 (97% gross retention, 95% module renewal, strong ARR and subscription revenue ), in Q4 2025 (97% GRR, 112% DBNR and effective CCP programs ), and in Q3 2025 (over 97% GRR, 115% dollar-based retention, high module adoption ). | Q2 2026 reinforced strong retention with 95%+ module renewals, record ARR milestones, and rising recurring revenue from 800 high-value customers. | Steady and high retention with effective recurring revenue models; sentiment remains positive with consistent customer stickiness and loyalty. |
Next Generation Cybersecurity Platforms | Covered extensively in Q1 2026 (NextGen SIEM and Charlotte AI driving significant customer wins ), Q4 2025 (Next-Gen SIEM growing 115% YoY with key wins and integrated platform strategy ), and Q3 2025 (acceleration in NextGen SIEM ARR, new AI features and large-scale customer wins ). | Q2 2026 highlighted continued strong performance in Next-Gen SIEM and AI capabilities by integrating Charlotte AI, reinforcing its role as a transformative, competitive solution. | Consistently central to the strategy with growing innovation and customer adoption; sentiment remains highly positive. |
AI Innovation and Evolving AI Trends | Q1 2026 emphasized AI-powered vulnerability assessments and Charlotte AI’s rapid adoption ; Q4 2025 focused on generative AI with Charlotte as a “SOC analyst’s best friend” and platform-native AI ; Q3 2025 detailed record growth in Charlotte AI and dual focus on AI for security and securing AI itself. | Q2 2026 showcased significant AI integration with Charlotte AI’s rapid growth (85% over Q1) and emphasis on securing AI across layers, reinforcing their AI-native advantage. | A growing and central focus area with increasing innovation; sentiment is very optimistic as AI continues to drive platform evolution and security. |
FalconFlex Subscription Dynamics | Q1 2026 described it as a “game changer” with rapid reflexes and an average deal >$1M over 31 months ; Q4 2025 reported strong flex deal value (80% QoQ growth and >10× YoY) with broad module adoption ; Q3 2025 highlighted over 150 deals, large deal sizes and deep platform stickiness. | Q2 2026 reported crossing 1,000 FalconFlex customers with >75% utilization and strong reflex expansion leading to nearly 50% uplift in ending ARR, reaffirming the model’s impact. | Demonstrating significant growth and deepening customer engagement; sentiment is increasingly positive as adoption and deal sizes continue to rise. |
Integration and Acquisition Execution Risks | Q3 2025 noted that acquisitions (e.g., Adaptive Shield) were well integrated into the Falcon platform with strategic fit ; Q1 and Q4 had no direct focus on risks. | Q2 2026 explicitly emphasized a careful and thoughtful acquisition integration strategy led by CEO George Kurtz, ensuring quality user experience and avoiding “ARR for the sake of ARR”. | Consistent cautious approach; while not a frequent topic, the current period reaffirms prudence and no major concerns, maintaining a stable outlook. |
Channel, Partner, and Public Sector Strategies | Q1 2026 focused on MSSP channel success and outcome-driven partner sales ; Q4 2025 showcased the partner ecosystem’s contribution (60% of new business, strong GSI and MSSP growth) ; Q3 2025 emphasized partner sourcing (70% of new subscription business) and strategic alliances with GSIs and hyperscalers. | Q2 2026 reinforced channel optimization with a partner rebate program, enhanced alignment with partners, and highlighted the federal government as a future opportunity. | Steady and strategic focus on partnerships across periods; sentiment remains positive with ongoing optimization and expanded channel strategies. |
Regulatory Scrutiny and Accounting Challenges | Q1 2026 included CFO discussions on DOJ/SEC inquiries regarding revenue recognition and ARR reporting ; Q3 2025 mentioned temporary accounting divergences tied to CCP impacts ; Q4 2025 lacked commentary on these topics. | Q2 2026 did not mention regulatory scrutiny or accounting challenges, suggesting a reduced focus or resolution of earlier concerns [N/A]. | The topic has receded in the current period; earlier regulatory and accounting concerns appear to have diminished in emphasis. |
Cloud Security and Marketplace Expansion | Q4 2025 detailed strong cloud security ARR ($600M, 45% YoY growth), key wins, and expansion via AWS and Google marketplaces ; Q3 2025 highlighted the Adaptive Shield acquisition and robust cloud security wins, with elevated marketplace activity ; Q1 2026 did not mention this topic. | Q2 2026 emphasized comprehensive cloud security (robust cloud workload protection integrated with other security postures) and dynamic marketplace expansion (new Flex wins, Amazon Business Prime partnership), adding important new wins. | An emerging growth area with increasing focus; previously absent in Q1 now reinforced in Q2, indicating a deeper strategic emphasis and opportunity. |
Operating Margin and Profitability Trends | Q1 2026 reported an 18% non-GAAP margin and strategic investments for future growth ; Q4 2025 posted 21% margins with record operating income and forward guidance ; Q3 2025 showed margins around 19% with healthy non-GAAP net income and free cash flow performance. | Q2 2026 achieved a record non-GAAP operating income with a 22% margin and provided guidance for improved free cash flow margins reaching over 30% in FY 2027. | Upward trend in profitability—margins are improving as efficiency and scale increase; sentiment reflects financial strength and robust execution. |
Emerging Product Growth Challenges | Q4 2025 mentioned deceleration in some emerging product areas (Cloud and Identity) due to CCP dynamics and noted future upsell opportunities ; Q1 and Q3 2025 did not highlight significant challenges. | Q2 2026 did not mention any emerging product growth challenges, suggesting that earlier hurdles may have been mitigated or are less of a concern now [N/A]. | Previously noted challenges are no longer emphasized, indicating potential resolution and improved performance in emerging product segments. |
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ARR Acceleration
Q: How will Q3 ARR surge be maintained?
A: Management expects that public sector deals, though minor, will add value while the transformative Flex model and strategic adjustments drive net new ARR growth beyond the $1B milestone in Q3, ensuring structural readiness for scale. -
ARR Sustainability
Q: What sustains 40% net new ARR growth?
A: The robust combination of accelerated Flex adoption, high module renewals (over 95%), and deep platform consolidation underpins sustainable 40% growth. -
Partner Rebate
Q: Do partner rebates continue in guidance?
A: Management clarified that the partner rebate program is factored into revenue guidance but will subside after 2026, supporting high customer retention. -
SIM vs Identity
Q: Why do SIM and identity growth rates differ?
A: The difference is driven by the disruptive SIM pricing model versus the steadily maturing identity platform that has deep early market adoption. -
ONAM Competition
Q: How does ONAM disrupt legacy SIEMs?
A: ONAM delivers real‑time, in‑pipeline detection with cost efficiencies—customers only pay for third‑party data ingest—creating a compelling disruption of legacy SIEM models. -
Cloud Security
Q: What drives cloud security consolidation wins?
A: Early-stage cloud initiatives, combining workload protection with ASPM, position CrowdStrike strongly in a consolidating market. -
Acquisitions Strategy
Q: How will acquisitions maintain platform growth?
A: Thoughtful tuck‑in acquisitions, supported by a $5B+ balance sheet, expand the platform strategically without merely buying ARR. -
Falcon Flex Impact
Q: How does Flex boost customer retention?
A: The integration of CCP through the Flex model has led to exceptional module renewal rates (over 95%) and strong upsell potential, reinforcing customer consolidation. -
Core EDR Growth
Q: Is core EDR ARR decelerating?
A: While standalone EDR growth appears lower, it remains the vital foundation of the unified platform, driving overall security consolidation and cross‑module benefits. -
Charlotte AI Performance
Q: What drives rapid Charlotte AI adoption?
A: The purpose‑built, integrated design of Charlotte significantly shortens investigative time, automating SOC functions and enhancing operational efficiency. -
Identity Strategy
Q: How does identity compete with pure plays?
A: Early action on identity—including PAM and Shield—has resulted in a robust, unified platform that customers find increasingly indispensable. -
EDR Value Add
Q: Do customers value EDR within Flex contracts?
A: EDR is seen as foundational, enabling effective data reuse and powering superior service overlays, which enhance the overall Flex value proposition. -
Exposure Management
Q: How strong is exposure management traction?
A: Crossing the $300M ARR threshold, the integrated approach, combining agent vulnerability and network scanning, has delivered marked consolidation wins. -
Shift-Left Strategy
Q: Will shift‑left security reduce code vulnerabilities?
A: Investments in ASPM and container scanning, enhanced by AI, are effectively addressing pre‑production vulnerabilities, mitigating risks early in the development cycle. -
Agentic AI Spending
Q: Which agentic AI categories attract customer funds?
A: Customers are moving from experimental use to securing AI models, with robust solutions protecting model creation, deployment, and continuous guardrails.
Research analysts covering CrowdStrike Holdings.